By: Mbewe Kalikeka
1st December 2025
Zambia has received yet another vote of confidence from the global financial community. On 23 November 2025, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) upgraded Zambia’s long- and short-term foreign-currency credit ratings from “Selective Default (SD)” to CCC+/C, marking the country’s formal exit from default status. Just five days later, on 28 November 2025, Fitch Ratings followed with an even stronger signal, upgrading Zambia’s sovereign rating from CCC to B-, with a stable outlook. These two consecutive upgrades represent the most significant improvement in Zambia’s credit standing since the start of its debt crisis and reflect rapidly improving perceptions of Zambia’s macroeconomic and fiscal trajectory.
The importance of this upgrade does not lie in the label itself, but in the journey, we undertook to reach this point, having defaulted on our external obligations in 2020. After this default, we endured years of fiscal hardship as we worked to restore macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline. The nation also engaged in complex debt-restructuring negotiations that sometimes seemed impossible. Therefore, these successive credit rating upgrades are not coincidental but the result of tough and deliberate reform decisions made by the Government. They show that Zambia is no longer seen to be in macroeconomic freefall. Instead, it is a country in the process of rebuilding its credibility, strengthening its policy environment, and restoring its position in global financial markets.
The S&P upgrade signals the market’s recognition that Zambia had conclusively moved past the default era. Fitch’s subsequent decision to raise the rating to B- goes further and views that Zambia has “materially improved its debt sustainability, strengthened policy credibility, and restored macroeconomic stability following significant reforms and debt restructuring.” This rating places Zambia at its strongest sovereign standing in nearly a decade.
These improvements align with Zambia’s evolving macroeconomic fundamentals. Real GDP growth is projected to rise from 4.0% in 2024 to 5.2% in 2025, driven by mining-sector expansion, renewed energy investments, and recovering agricultural output. On the fiscal side, the 2026 Budget projects total Government spending at 27.4% of GDP, primarily funded through domestic revenue estimated at 22.3% of GDP, with borrowing contained at 3.7% of GDP. This combination of fiscal consolidation and stable financing is precisely what rating agencies have cited as evidence of improving debt sustainability and macroeconomic discipline.
More importantly, the upgrades reflect the results of painful but necessary macroeconomic adjustments: expenditure tightening, deficit reduction, external debt restructuring, improved transparency, and institutional strengthening. These reforms were not universally popular and often lacked broad public appreciation. Yet today, their cumulative effect is unmistakable, as Zambia’s economic credibility is rising again, and international confidence is returning.
Nonetheless, it is essential to recognise what these upgrades do not imply. They do not mean that Zambia has fully resolved its debt vulnerabilities, nor do they guarantee access to low-cost financing. The country remains below investment grade, and some restructuring issues, more especially with certain commercial creditors, which are still pending. Vulnerabilities to commodity shocks and climate variability also remain real. These do not diminish the achievement; instead, they highlight the need for continued discipline and reform commitment.
The main message remains clear: Zambia is heading in the right direction. The Government warrants praise for its steady commitment to reforms and its ability to guide the country away from crisis. The twin upgrades highlight a decisive change in Zambia’s economic story: from uncertainty and hardship to recovery and renewed confidence.
If Zambia continues with its reforms, strengthens fiscal anchors, accelerates structural transformation, and deepens macroeconomic governance, further improvements are not only possible but increasingly likely. Zambia may not yet be at its desired level, but it has certainly left behind the most challenging phase. With focus and consistency, the country is on a path towards a more resilient, competitive, and inclusive economic future.