By Emmanuel Muma and Margret Namukanzye
17th February, 2026
In 2024, the Zambian Government made a broad pronouncement, announcing its intention to more than triple copper production to 3 million metric tonnes per annum by 2031. This announcement was met with mixed reactions; some expressed doubt, while others expressed optimism. The debates were shaped by persistent governance and regulatory uncertainty, prolonged underinvestment, and recurring operational disruptions, which had contributed to a period of output stagnation, with production hovering between 600,000 Mt and 800,000 Mt by 2024.
Two years on, that initial debate merits a fresh look. We begin by highlighting the challenges that have affected the industry, reviewing the sector’s recent performance and production outcomes, and, finally, considering both price and market dynamics in assessing its future prospects.
Over the past decade, governance issues including policy instability, regulatory uncertainty, and weak institutional frameworks undermined investor confidence. Further, the economy was plagued by critical underinvestment in infrastructure, exploration and technology, limiting productivity and competitiveness in the industry. These structural factors, coupled with operational challenges, including inefficiencies in mining processes, logistical bottlenecks, power supply disruptions, and skills gaps, have conspired to viciously constrain copper output, and prolonging the trough in the industrial cycle of copper mining.
While still grappling with challenges, a noticeable uptick in the copper output has been recorded, indicating entry into the embryonic stage of the growth phase. This is a gradual phase of growth, but it is also a watershed moment which if not purposely harnessed could easily become transient. This phase commenced three years ago, when copper increased from 736,585 metric tonnes (Mt) in 2023 to 822,824 Mt in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of roughly 12%. Building on this progress, output in 2025 increased, though modestly, to 823,475 Mt.
However, compared with the national annual production projections of 980,165 Mt for 2024 and 1,300,056 Mt for 2025, actual output fell short by approximately 157,341 Mt (16 %) in 2024 and 476,581 Mt (36 %) in 2025. Nonetheless, from an optimistic perspective, about 84% and 63% of planned production in 2024 and 2025, respectively, were achieved. In most grading systems, the 2024 performance would be considered an excellent result, while the overall performance trend a fair one, reflecting meaningful progress and confirming that the recovery trajectory remains in sight.
The output underperformance against target reflects the persistence of structural and operational challenges, which are now compounding the electricity supply deficits experienced since 2024. The persistence of these challenges underscores the need for transformative strategies to improve and sustain the industry’s performance.
While the shortfall in 2025 relative to the annual production target of 1,300,056 Mt for the same year was approximately 476,581 Mt, this gap is of a scale that could, in principle, be closed by a single large mine operating at full capacity. For example, First Quantum Minerals (FQM) aims to produce between 375,000 and 435,000 tonnes of copper in 2026, with a target of increasing output to between 430,000 and 490,000 tonnes by 2028, according to its 2026–2028 Production Guidance report.[1] In addition, several pipeline investments are expected to come online and support higher production levels from 2026 onward, provided that the projects are successfully executed and reach full operational capacity. These include the Sinomine Kitumba, with an estimated annual capacity of 50,000 Mt,[2] continued output gains at FQM’s Kansanshi Mine, which recorded a 6% increase in production in 2025 to 181,000 Mt, and other exploration-led projects expected to transition into production. Additional incremental output from the restoration of mining operations such as the Foreland Minerals’ acquisition of the historic Chingola project, although the scale and timing of such contributions will depend on investment pace, infrastructure readiness, and regulatory stability. Collectively, these developments highlight the feasibility of closing the remaining gap. It also underlines the need to scale up recapitalization and investments to accelerate brownfield expansions and bring new greenfield projects online to meet medium-term targets and the 2031 goal of 3 million Mt per year.
Taken together, the 2024 and 2025 output figures indicate a gradual recovery in Zambia’s copper sector, even though output remains below official targets. In 2026, copper output is expected to continue improving, driven by mine recapitalisation, enhanced operational performance, and planned expansions at major operations, including Konkola Copper Mines (KCM), Mopani Mines, and First Quantum Minerals (FQM).[3] [4] This outlook is reinforced by the expectation of gradual easing of the key constraints that have historically dampened output, particularly operational bottlenecks, and energy supply to be specific.
Building on the projected recovery and planned production expansions, the favourable price of copper is likely to continue playing a key complementary role in shaping conditions and incentives for enterprise-level investment. The ongoing global energy transition and the push for green technologies are key fundamentals supporting strong demand for copper, which is likely to support elevated prices over the medium term. Copper prices firmed through 2025, closing at approximately US$11,800 per Mt on the London Metal Exchange (LME) by December, but commodity price movements remain volatile, making their short-term trajectory inherently uncertain.
The production outlook for 2026 is therefore anticipated to strengthen relative to 2025, contingent on operational enhancements, successful project ramp-ups, and the easing of production constraints. As such, near-term production performance is expected to depend primarily on operational efficiency and timely investment, with price conditions playing a complementary role. At the same time, renewed investor confidence, progress in expanding and diversifying electricity generation, and projected economic growth averaging about 6% over the medium term are expected to reinforce sectoral performance.
Considering these factors and assuming no major power supply disruptions or regulatory reversals, 2026 could represent a critical inflexion point in Zambia’s copper production trajectory. Achieving medium-term annual output above 1 million Mt would validate the recovery phase, strengthen investor confidence, and materially improve the feasibility of accelerated growth in the post-2026 period. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected outcome would narrow the remaining adjustment window and heighten execution risks as the country approaches the 2031 target of 3 million Mt per annum.
Sustaining momentum will therefore require close monitoring of brownfield asset performance, timely ramp-up of greenfield projects, and continued attention to energy supply, regulatory enforcement, and logistical coordination. While challenges remain, the combination of easing constraints and new investment suggests that the 2026 milestone is within reach, supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the sector.
[1] https://www.first-quantum.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/NR-26-02-Q4-Production-Three-Year_Guidance.pdf
[2] Sinomine
[3] https://www.first-quantum.com/news/first-quantum-minerals-announces-2025-preliminary-production-and-2026-2028-guidance/
[4] https://www.arcminerals.com/news/rns/rns-details/2025/Acquisition-of-Chingola-Project/default.aspx